Innovative rapid modelling for tidal range scenarios

Abstract

Effective seabed management is crucial for a sustainable future, a responsibility shared across multiple organisations including The Crown Estate in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The Crown Estate’s approach to seabed optimisation includes developing rapid modelling tools to generate evidence for future spatial planning scenarios. For offshore wind projects, for example, the objective cost is influenced by local environmental factors and can be adequately calculated on a node-by-node basis, populating a mesh accordingly. However, this approach is not suitable for tidal range projects, where parameters such as project perimeter and area significantly impact both cost and energy generation. Therefore, to model the objective cost of tidal range projects, each node in the mesh must account for the shapes of potential projects that can be constructed. Integrating tidal range projects into spatial planning poses significant challenges and risks due to potential conflicts between various seabed users and environmental considerations. Here we show a methodology applied to a fictional country

Our methodology utilised genetic algorithms and proved to be cost-effective and rapid compared to current capabilities, significantly increasing the speed at which a country's EEZ could be analysed. This approach successfully demonstrated and mitigated potential conflicts in tidal range project scenarios by optimising spatial planning to balance . The model notably reduced stakeholder conflicts, and financial analyses indicated enhanced project viability through reduced objective costs associated with conflict resolution and environmental mitigation. Additionally, the integration of advanced geospatial analysis and robust data improved the accuracy and reliability of spatial evidence, supporting more informed decision-making for sustainable seabed management.

Our results highlight how novel rapid modelling tools can create evidence for future scenarios in tidal energy deployment, making the sector more responsive to financial or political changes. This research significantly enhances capability of seabed owners to sustainable management by providing a robust methodology for integrating tidal range projects into spatial planning. By resolving conflicts and optimising spatial scenarios, the research supports sustainable seabed management. Capabilities like this enable The Crown Estate to determine the areas of the UK that are the best for developing tidal range given holistic environmental, social, and economic factors. On a global scale, the methodology developed can be adapted and applied to other countries, promoting sustainable seabed management worldwide and contributing to global efforts to combat climate change.