CMIP6 wave climate simulation in the European North East Atlantic Basin using WaveWatch III

Abstract

Climate change is expected to have an impact on wind patterns, and therefore the generation of waves. Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), provides various realization of outputs integrated global coupled models for different centuries. Wind quality is a cornerstone for wave energy as it is the primary generation driver in any wave model. Therefore, proper quantification of wind wave interactions are key in the evaluation of future wave energy potential. In this study, a wave hindcast for the North-East Atlantic, using the WaveWatchIII model forced by CMIP6 winds is presented. The model uses a grid of 0.25° of spatial resolution, covering a longitude range of -21.0° to 10° (west to east) and a latitude range of 18° to 80° (south to north).
The main objective of this work is to assess the quality of historical winds from all the CMIP6 wind data that are available under the first realization criteria (r1i1p1f1) at the time of this study. This leads to understanding limitations and proposing a selection method to choose the optimal wind dataset to force the wave model within the analyzed area.
Thus, the optimal CMIP6 historical winds for the North-East Atlantic are used to create a 10 years hindcast(from 2003 to 2012). To further assess the suitability of the selected winds dataset for wave generation, results are compared with the ERA5 wave product. The available CMIP6 models show region-specific variations depending on the Regional Climate models used for their developments. The results show the impact of zonal and, meridional wind intensities, on wave characteristics in different regions over the domain.